My Campaign
Stuart Greenfield holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Texas. He was hired by Comptroller Bullock in February 1977 and worked for two other Texas Comptrollers of Public Accounts and other Texas state agencies. Since retiring from the state in 2000, Stuart has taught economics at Austin Community College and the University of Maryland Global College. He has also worked on various projects that interest him, including preparing testimony on the dismal investment performance of ERS investments, analysis of the public sector pay in Texas relative to other states (Yes, you are underpaid), researching the aging of the public sector workforce and its implications, and analyzing the fiscal condition of Texas (it's better then expected).
The Latest and Greatest Why You Should Vote For Me
June 3 - Emails from Voters - I've received a number of emails from employees who voted for me, take a few minutes to read why they did. The first email should be most informative.
FB May 26
The legislature has agreed on a budget bill, While there is a 5% pay increase for active employees for FY24 and FY25 there is no increase for retired state employees. However, there is funding for the anticipated increase for retired teachers in SB 10. Unfortunately, bill SB 30, which might have been used to provide for a retiree supplement, is now out of the conference committee, and I'm not aware of another bill that might fund a retiree increase. SB 30 did provide teachers w/ a supplement, :the amount of $1,000,000,000 is appropriated from the general revenue fund to the Teacher Retirement System for the two-year period beginning on the effective date of this Act for the purpose of providing a benefit enhancement."
I was hoping to avoid it, but I will now be writing a Thanks Schmuckoo's letter to members of the 88th lege.
May 24: Generative AI (G-AI) will be essential to ERS's future, https://tinyurl.com/vanguardAI. I've been using Chat GPT in my Principles of Economics courses this year and will ensure that ERS takes advantage of the information G-AI provides. Along with using Chat GPT in my classes, I also used it to assist with my campaign. If you can contact the other candidates ask them how they will leverage G-AI to improve ERS's performance and services. If you're not able to contact other candidates, please try Chat GPT yourself and w/ your children.
May 22 - BRE update:
Biennial Revenue Estimate, 2024-2025 Biennium, 88th Texas Legislature, January 2023
I'm still working on compensation for active and retired employee. As a former chief revenue and economic forecaster, I prepared an update to the Comptroller's BRE. I expect another $3-$5 billion in FY23 and $10-$15 billion in FY24-25. This is more than enough to fund more than the 5% active employee pay increase and also to fund a supplement for retired state employees who haven't received an increase since 2001. I hope you find the analysis informative.
May 17: Today I attended the ERS Board meeting to present information on getting a supplement for retired employees and show how ERS investment returns have underperformed the S&P 500 index over every 20-year cycle since 1989. After my 5-minute presentation, I went over the LBJ Bldg to hand out my campaign cards. While talking w/ Arthur Hernandez, she mentioned that a butterfly was on my shoulder, which is good luck.
Thank U, and please suggest to others they consider me.
You can view my analysis at, Now that I'm between classes, I prepared an analysis to present to the SB 10 and SB 30 conference committee members. The analysis shows that the state so far this fiscal year has collected two billion more than the FY 23 BRE estimate. W/ these revenues, there is more than enough to provide all state retirees an increase in benefits comparable to what teachers should be receiving.
Along with finding dollars for a 13th check, I want to reinforce how much better ERS would have done had it just been invested in an S&P 500 Index fund. According to the ERS actuary, in 2022, the average age at retirement was 58.4 years of age. According to the Social Security Administration, a 58-year-old should expect to live another 25 years. Your life expectancy at retirement, 25 years, creates a 25-year liability for ERS. A basic rule of thumb is that a financial institution should match its assets to its liabilities. This figure shows how the compound annual return on ERS's portfolio compares to the S&P 500 annual return over 20 years. In 2022 the rate of return for the S&P 500 exceeded the ERS return by two (2) percent per year. Had ERS replicated the S&P 500, its return after 20 years would have been 51.5 percent greater.
Two conference committees are now meeting, which could enable a supplemental payment to retired state employees comparable to what SB 10 provides to retired teachers beginning in January 2024. SB 30 will continue the $1 billion appropriation to amortize ERS's unfunded actuarial liability by 2054. If I were on the Board, I would have ALL Board members go south on Brazos for one block to speak with Comptroller Hegar about the $2 billion in additional GR-R revenue the state has collected through April. I would hope that Comptroller Hegar would agree that providing the hundreds of retired Comptroller employees, even me, with a retirement supplement ASAP, instead of in January 2025, would have his support.
Along with my concern for my fellow retirees, I have worked tirelessly for pay increases for active employees. Starting in 1999, I have campaigned to increase state employee pay. The Austin American Statesman article and a San Antonio Express-News article both document my concern and efforts to improve active employee pay.
One can contact me at: sjg@austin.rr.com
P.S. - I want ERS to make use of Chat GPT to improve service delivery to both active and retired employees. Log onto Chat GPT and give it a try,
More on Why Vote for Me? The three graphs below show WHY you should
The graphs, below along with this ARTICLE from the NY Times, shows that the active investment policies of ERS is less then sterling.
The graph on the right shows the atrocious performance of the ERS Board of Trustees over this century. In 2000, the fund was fully funded and was able to provide both a 13th check and a COLA. Since then as the chart shows the fund's ability to cover its obligations has declined, so that in 2021 ERS was only able to cover 68.0 percent of its obligations to retirees.
The Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) is the difference between what a pension fund is obligated to pay retirees and the assets that it will have to cover these liabilities.
This graph shows the Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) for US state-local pension funds, the Texas Teachers Retirement System (TRS), and our Employee Retirement System (ERS). Please note that all systems were fully funded at the beginning of the century. While the UAAL has declined this century, the US and TRS pension funds now have an increasing UAAL. However, the UAAL for ERS is still on a downward trend. A significant factor contributing to this decline is the less-than-market returns ERS has earned this century. I will reverse this century-long decline if elected.
The graph on the right shows that had ERS just invested the state and employee contributions in the S&P 500 instead of the investment policy they pursued since 1989; they would have had a 87.0 percent greater return on their portfolio. They also would have eliminated their $100 million annual expenditure for consultants. Paying $100 million to obtain lesser returns is not the most sensible investment policy, and if elected to the board, I will make every effort to address this dismal performance.
Annual Value of $100 invested in S&P 500 and ERS, 1989-2023 1989-2023https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jcq9AmH_91rHl6rkRSrQsUDHxzxHSTK9/view?usp=drive_link
Testimony to ERS Board August 2020, Improving ERS Investment Performance, I Hope You Do Something, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gG5ex6VLGsAiRwrhLEDuN1DXOMVNWyWT/view?usp=drive_link
Charts ERS Board Meeting May 2021, https://docs.google.com/document/d/16R8KGIrv5Vh8lZYFVAVsesKw5dbUFe9D/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116412360996984222945&rtpof=true&sd=true
The graph on the right shows the 30-year return beginning in 1978, which is 30 years after ERS was created. Both the returns with and without dividends is shown. One should note that the 30-year return with dividends exceed the assumed 8% return that ERS had historically stated was needed to meet its funding requirement. After the latest reduction the assumed funding requirement is 7 percent.
This century the S&P 500 return without dividends exceeded the 8% return for all but five years this century and the current 7 percent return in every 30-year period.
S&P 500 30 year, 1978-2022, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zknf8NNtoOtETwVqKq1nGBNwN5ZTkC6h/view?usp=drive_link
Charts May 2021 meeting.docx - Google Docs
S&P v ERS, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hzpDi2p3sY_-NLHCXLD5ARSQ25XHfYe8/view?usp=drive_link
To nominate me for the ERS Board of Trustees visit this ERS website.
The nomination period has ended and I'm now a CANDIDATE. Thanks to the 340 who nominated me.
For much of my career as a state employee I adhered to what I call "the Bullock philosophy": Do what is right for the citizens of Texas. That is what I'll do for YOU should I be elected to the ERS Board of Trustees. In 1999 I created a PAC to lobby for an employee pay raise. The Austin American Statesman published this article concerning this effort.
In 1989, while working at the Employment Commission, I sent this memo to Mr. Bullock to review the investment performance of ERS and TRS.
My testimony for the IRC 125 plan that allows state employees to pay for health benefits with tax-free dollars is here.
In September 2017 I testified to the ERS Board about its investment returns relative to investing in the market and in comparison with other public sector retirement funds. You'll note their performance was not what is needed for a 13th check.
In August 2020 I testified to the ERS Board about its investment returns relative to investing in the market. As you'll note their performance was not impressive.
In May 2021 I testified to the ERS Board about its investment returns relative to investing in the market. Performance continued to not be a benchmark.
At the latest Board meeting, investment performance improved relative to the market.
Scott Burns, a longtime financial columnist, has written a number of articles on the performance of the TRS and Texas pension funds. View them at scottburns.com. You'll note that both TRS and the other public pension have not done as well as the overall market.
The current actuarial report makes for very depressing reading. At the current rate of progress I'd have to reach the jolly old age of 108 years before "the unfunded actuarial accrued liability is eliminated. While there is a bill to provide a maximum $100/month increase in one's annuity check, it only applies to those of us who are retired twenty years or more. Glad I'll qualify, so my grandchildren won't go hungry. :-)
According to the March 1, 2023 Board meeting, the fund did less worse than its policy benchmark. While the fund did less bad than it's self-selected policy benchmarks, its Calendar Year to Date (CYD) return -0.3 percent was less than the S&P 500 YTD return of around two percent.
You can view the data I used to support my analysis here.
Since retiring in 2000 I written a number of articles analyzing state employee pay. I've also testified to the Lege about employee pay. You can view my recent papers for 2010, 2012 and 2000-2021
More to follow.
One can contact me at: sjg@austin.rr.com